Lester Brown's Plan for a Sustainable World Includes You!

Lester Brown, founder of the Earth Policy Institute, addressed a group of Portlanders today highlighting observations and suggestions from his recent book, Plan B 4.0. Historically, many civilizations have collapsed when their food supply has failed. Trends contributing to that failure include desertification, deforestation and aquifer depletion. We have been aware of these trends for centuries. We have yet to reverse their impact.

Brown points out that “there are substitutes for oil, but none for food.” In an interconnected world, the collapse of any civilized region threatens the stability of the others. We are not isolated from the effects of a trend in Antarctica or Africa or Asia.

Global warming is a fact. We know our climate is changing and that impacts crop production. In the Philippines, 100% rice pollination occurs at 93 degrees. If the temperature rises to 104 degrees during that critical period, pollination is zero. Many will starve.

We know that Greenland’s ice fields are melting and that oceans will rise from 3 to 6 feet in this century. A rise of only 3 feet will flood rice producing regions of Southeast Asia like the Mekong Delta which exports 50% of its rice. As Himalayan glaciers recede, rivers that supply irrigation water to China will run dry in the summer months. China uses surface irrigation to produce twice the amount of wheat as the U.S.

We may not see the connection between melting ice on one side of the globe and the cost of a loaf of bread at our local market. We will. When 1.3 billion Chinese go shopping globally, they’ll drive up the price of wheat everywhere as they have driven up the cost of soy beans. Historically, the U.S. would put restrictions on our exports. But, we currently owe about $1 trillion dollars to China. As Brown puts it, “You can’t say ‘no’ to your banker.”

There is good news. On a massive scale, we are moving away from carbon based energy generation. In Texas alone, existing wind farms and those already in development will produce the equivalent of 53 coal fired power plants. That trend is accelerating globally. China’s wind generation has double in each of the past 5 years. Brown says “You don’t have to be a math wizard to know that doubling and redoubling quickly adds up to a lot.” China has the potential to increase its wind power 7-fold within our lifetime. Solar thermal projects in North Africa could provide half of the energy requirements of Europe. All of this spells the end of fossil fuel as our energy source. That’s a good trend.

Our challenge is to start solving problems systemically. In our complex society, we too often approach problems as individual, unrelated and unconnected. They are not.

Brown offered several models to make the critical changes possible. The model most likely to succeed is “the sandwich model,” driven from the bottom up and from the top down. Cutting carbon emissions 80% by 2020 is achievable. Conserving energy is as critical as increasing clean energy production. Food security is what will determine the future of our civilization. The solutions involve everyone collaborating and contributing. Civilization is not a spectator sport. 
 

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